Modelling A.I. in Economics

When should you buy or sell a stock? (Bovespa Index Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Market systems are so complex that they overwhelm the ability of any individual to predict. But it is crucial for the investors to predict stock market price to generate notable profit. We have taken into factors such as Commodity Prices (crude oil, gold, silver), Market History, and Foreign exchange rate (FEX) that influence the stock trend. We evaluate Bovespa Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Bovespa Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Bovespa Index stock.


Keywords: Bovespa Index, Bovespa Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

Bovespa Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We consider Bovespa Index Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Bovespa Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Bovespa Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Bovespa Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Bovespa Index Bovespa Index
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Bovespa Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Bovespa Index assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Bovespa Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Bovespa Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Bovespa Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 8455
Market Risk7888
Technical Analysis4367
Fundamental Analysis4055
Risk Unsystematic4731

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 478 signals.

References

  1. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  3. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  6. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Bovespa Index stock?
A: Bovespa Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is Bovespa Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Bovespa Index Stock.
Q: Is Bovespa Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bovespa Index is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Bovespa Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Bovespa Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Bovespa Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Bovespa Index is (n+1 year)

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