Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate Polaris prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PII stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PII stock.

Keywords: PII, Polaris, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

## PII Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions. We consider Polaris Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of PII stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PII stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PII Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PII Polaris
Time series to forecast n: 17 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PII stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Polaris assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PII stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PII stock.

### Financial State Forecast for PII Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Baa2
Operational Risk 6549
Market Risk4779
Technical Analysis6089
Fundamental Analysis4767
Risk Unsystematic3479

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 479 signals.

## References

1. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
2. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
3. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
5. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
6. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
7. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PII stock?
A: PII stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is PII stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PII Stock.
Q: Is Polaris stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Polaris is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PII stock?
A: The consensus rating for PII is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PII stock?
A: The prediction period for PII is (n+3 month)