Modelling A.I. in Economics

Adani Transmission Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We evaluate Adani Transmission Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ADANITRANS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE ADANITRANS stock.


Keywords: NSE ADANITRANS, Adani Transmission Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

NSE ADANITRANS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market is one of the key sectors of a country's economy. It provides investors with an opportunity to invest and gain returns on their investment. Predicting the stock market is a very challenging task and has attracted serious interest from researchers from many fields such as statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, and finance. An accurate prediction of the stock market reduces investment risk in the market. Different approaches have been used to predict the stock market. The performances of Machine learning (ML) models are typically superior to those of statistical and econometric models. We consider Adani Transmission Limited Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE ADANITRANS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE ADANITRANS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE ADANITRANS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE ADANITRANS Adani Transmission Limited
Time series to forecast n: 04 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE ADANITRANS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Adani Transmission Limited

  1. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
  2. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  3. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.
  4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Adani Transmission Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ADANITRANS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE ADANITRANS stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE ADANITRANS Adani Transmission Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Operational Risk 5090
Market Risk3244
Technical Analysis8763
Fundamental Analysis3677
Risk Unsystematic7774

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 714 signals.

References

  1. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  2. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  3. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  4. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  5. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  6. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE ADANITRANS stock?
A: NSE ADANITRANS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is NSE ADANITRANS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE ADANITRANS Stock.
Q: Is Adani Transmission Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Adani Transmission Limited is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE ADANITRANS stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE ADANITRANS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE ADANITRANS stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE ADANITRANS is (n+3 month)



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