## Summary

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. ** We evaluate Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIO stock.**

## Key Points

- What is prediction model?
- Game Theory
- Trading Interaction

## AIO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AIO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Paired T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AIO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AIO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AIO Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

**Time series to forecast n: 30 Nov 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIO stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

- A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
- If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
- If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
- To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AIO stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIO stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AIO Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 61 | 86 |

Market Risk | 34 | 56 |

Technical Analysis | 76 | 51 |

Fundamental Analysis | 55 | 78 |

Risk Unsystematic | 84 | 30 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- T. Morimura, M. Sugiyama, M. Kashima, H. Hachiya, and T. Tanaka. Nonparametric return distribution ap- proximation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 799–806, 2010
- M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
- Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
- Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
- Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
- Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
- Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AIO stock?A: AIO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test

Q: Is AIO stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AIO Stock.

Q: Is Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AIO stock?

A: The consensus rating for AIO is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AIO stock?

A: The prediction period for AIO is (n+16 weeks)