Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Stock Forecast & Analysis

Finance is one of the pioneering industries that started using Machine Learning (ML), a subset of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early 80s for market prediction. Since then, major firms and hedge funds have adopted machine learning for stock prediction, portfolio optimization, credit lending, stock betting, etc. In this paper, we survey all the different approaches of machine learning that can be incorporated in applied finance. We evaluate Alphabet Inc. (Class C) prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GOOG stock.

Keywords: GOOG, Alphabet Inc. (Class C), stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Trading Interaction
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

GOOG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We consider Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of GOOG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GOOG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GOOG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C)
Time series to forecast n: 03 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GOOG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Alphabet Inc. (Class C)

1. If a variable-rate financial liability bears interest of (for example) three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points (with a floor at zero basis points), an entity can designate as the hedged item the change in the cash flows of that entire liability (ie three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points—including the floor) that is attributable to changes in LIBOR. Hence, as long as the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability does not fall below 20 basis points, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a liability that bears interest at three-month LIBOR with a zero or positive spread. However, if the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability (or a part of it) falls below 20 basis points, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a liability that bears interest at threemonth LIBOR with a zero or positive spread.
2. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
3. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GOOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GOOG stock.

Financial State Forecast for GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Operational Risk	49	36
Market Risk	54	83
Technical Analysis	85	41
Fundamental Analysis	67	43
Risk Unsystematic	36	64

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 834 signals.

References

1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
2. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
4. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
5. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
6. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
7. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GOOG stock?
A: GOOG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is GOOG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GOOG Stock.
Q: Is Alphabet Inc. (Class C) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GOOG stock?
A: The consensus rating for GOOG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GOOG stock?
A: The prediction period for GOOG is (n+6 month)

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