Modelling A.I. in Economics

ASM:TSX Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Research Report

Summary

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We evaluate Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ASM:TSX stock.

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

ASM:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASM:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASM:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ASM:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASM:TSX Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 29 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ASM:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

  1. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.
  2. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).
  3. It would not be acceptable to designate only some of the financial assets and financial liabilities giving rise to the inconsistency as at fair value through profit or loss if to do so would not eliminate or significantly reduce the inconsistency and would therefore not result in more relevant information. However, it would be acceptable to designate only some of a number of similar financial assets or similar financial liabilities if doing so achieves a significant reduction (and possibly a greater reduction than other allowable designations) in the inconsistency. For example, assume an entity has a number of similar financial liabilities that sum to CU100 and a number of similar financial assets that sum to CU50 but are measured on a different basis. The entity may significantly reduce the measurement inconsistency by designating at initial recognition all of the assets but only some of the liabilities (for example, individual liabilities with a combined total of CU45) as at fair value through profit or loss. However, because designation as at fair value through profit or loss can be applied only to the whole of a financial instrument, the entity in this example must designate one or more liabilities in their entirety. It could not designate either a component of a liability (eg changes in value attributable to only one risk, such as changes in a benchmark interest rate) or a proportion (ie percentage) of a liability.
  4. To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ASM:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for ASM:TSX Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 6656
Market Risk3941
Technical Analysis4159
Fundamental Analysis8688
Risk Unsystematic7757

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 802 signals.

References

  1. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  3. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  4. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  5. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  6. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASM:TSX stock?
A: ASM:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is ASM:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ASM:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASM:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASM:TSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASM:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for ASM:TSX is (n+3 month)



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