## Summary

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the cornerstone of the modern financial theory and it states that it is impossible to predict the price of any stock using any trend, fundamental or technical analysis. Stock trading is one of the most important activities in the world of finance. Stock price prediction has been an age-old problem and many researchers from academia and business have tried to solve it using many techniques ranging from basic statistics to machine learning using relevant information such as news sentiment and historical prices.** We evaluate Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ATLC stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATLC stock.**

## Key Points

- What is prediction in deep learning?
- Can statistics predict the future?
- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## ATLC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ATLC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Logistic Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATLC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ATLC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 30 Nov 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATLC stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock

- When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
- Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
- If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
- To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ATLC stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATLC stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 49 | 42 |

Market Risk | 30 | 34 |

Technical Analysis | 87 | 79 |

Fundamental Analysis | 33 | 38 |

Risk Unsystematic | 89 | 79 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
- M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
- Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
- M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
- Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
- Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ATLC stock?A: ATLC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression

Q: Is ATLC stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATLC Stock.

Q: Is Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ATLC stock?

A: The consensus rating for ATLC is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for ATLC stock?

A: The prediction period for ATLC is (n+4 weeks)