BB:TSX BlackBerry Limited

BlackBerry Limited Research Report

Summary

With the advent of technological marvels like global digitization, the prediction of the stock market has entered a technologically advanced era, revamping the old model of trading. With the ceaseless increase in market capitalization, stock trading has become a center of investment for many financial investors. Many analysts and researchers have developed tools and techniques that predict stock price movements and help investors in proper decision-making. We evaluate BlackBerry Limited prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BB:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BB:TSX stock.

Key Points

1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
2. Prediction Modeling
3. Stock Rating

BB:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BlackBerry Limited Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BB:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BB:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BB:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BB:TSX BlackBerry Limited
Time series to forecast n: 30 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BB:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for BlackBerry Limited

1. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).
2. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
3. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

BlackBerry Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BB:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BB:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for BB:TSX BlackBerry Limited Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	67	53
Market Risk	58	86
Technical Analysis	40	80
Fundamental Analysis	36	34
Risk Unsystematic	78	76

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 489 signals.

References

1. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
2. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
4. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BB:TSX stock?
A: BB:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is BB:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BB:TSX Stock.
Q: Is BlackBerry Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BlackBerry Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BB:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BB:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BB:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for BB:TSX is (n+1 year)

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