BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED Research Report

## Summary

Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We evaluate BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BGP stock.

## Key Points

1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
3. How do you pick a stock?

## BGP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BGP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Factor)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BGP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BGP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BGP BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BGP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED

1. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
2. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
3. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
4. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BGP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BGP BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Operational Risk 9089
Market Risk8568
Technical Analysis8740
Fundamental Analysis6541
Risk Unsystematic5773

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 793 signals.

## References

1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
2. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
3. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
5. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
6. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BGP stock?
A: BGP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is BGP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BGP Stock.
Q: Is BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BRISCOE GROUP AUSTRALASIA LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BGP stock?
A: The consensus rating for BGP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BGP stock?
A: The prediction period for BGP is (n+4 weeks)