Bausch Health Companies Inc. Research Report

## Summary

Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We evaluate Bausch Health Companies Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BHC:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BHC:TSX stock.

## Key Points

1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
2. Nash Equilibria
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

## BHC:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Bausch Health Companies Inc. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BHC:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BHC:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BHC:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BHC:TSX Bausch Health Companies Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BHC:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Bausch Health Companies Inc.

1. For the avoidance of doubt, the effects of replacing the original counterparty with a clearing counterparty and making the associated changes as described in paragraph 6.5.6 shall be reflected in the measurement of the hedging instrument and therefore in the assessment of hedge effectiveness and the measurement of hedge effectiveness
2. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
3. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
4. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Bausch Health Companies Inc. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BHC:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BHC:TSX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BHC:TSX Bausch Health Companies Inc. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 5934
Market Risk7464
Technical Analysis5140
Fundamental Analysis6035
Risk Unsystematic7284

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 664 signals.

## References

1. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
2. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
3. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
4. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
6. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
7. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BHC:TSX stock?
A: BHC:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is BHC:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BHC:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Bausch Health Companies Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bausch Health Companies Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BHC:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BHC:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BHC:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for BHC:TSX is (n+4 weeks)