AC Investment Research

BKG Options & Futures Prediction Research Report

Impact of many factors on the stock prices makes the stock prediction a difficult and highly complicated task. In this paper, machine learning techniques have been applied for the stock price prediction in order to overcome such difficulties. In the implemented work, five models have been developed and their performances are compared in predicting the stock market trends. We evaluate Berkeley Group Holdings prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKG stock.


Keywords: BKG, Berkeley Group Holdings, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  3. Prediction Modeling

BKG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Neural networks (NNs), as artificial intelligence (AI) methods, have become very important in making stock market predictions. Much research on the applications of NNs for solving business problems have proven their advantages over statistical and other methods that do not include AI, although there is no optimal methodology for a certain problem. We consider Berkeley Group Holdings Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of BKG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BKG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BKG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
Time series to forecast n: 16 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Berkeley Group Holdings

  1. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  2. Despite the requirement in paragraph 7.2.1, an entity that adopts the classification and measurement requirements of this Standard (which include the requirements related to amortised cost measurement for financial assets and impairment in Sections 5.4 and 5.5) shall provide the disclosures set out in paragraphs 42L–42O of IFRS 7 but need not restate prior periods. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application. However, if an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all of the requirements in this Standard. If an entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9 results in more than one date of initial application for different requirements, this paragraph applies at each date of initial application (see paragraph 7.2.2). This would be the case, for example, if an entity elects to early apply only the requirements for the presentation of gains and losses on financial liabilities designated as at fair value through profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 7.1.2 before applying the other requirements in this Standard.
  3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Berkeley Group Holdings assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKG stock.

Financial State Forecast for BKG Berkeley Group Holdings Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4458
Market Risk6674
Technical Analysis5045
Fundamental Analysis4441
Risk Unsystematic8762

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 670 signals.

References

  1. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  2. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  3. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  6. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BKG stock?
A: BKG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is BKG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BKG Stock.
Q: Is Berkeley Group Holdings stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Berkeley Group Holdings is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BKG stock?
A: The consensus rating for BKG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BKG stock?
A: The prediction period for BKG is (n+6 month)

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