## Summary

In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. ** We evaluate Budapest SE Index prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Budapest SE Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Budapest SE Index stock.**

## Key Points

- Market Risk
- How can neural networks improve predictions?
- Can neural networks predict stock market?

## Budapest SE Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Budapest SE Index Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of Budapest SE Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Paired T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({a}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Budapest SE Index stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Budapest SE Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**Budapest SE Index Budapest SE Index

**Time series to forecast n: 23 Nov 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Budapest SE Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Budapest SE Index

- An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
- If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
- When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
- Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Budapest SE Index assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Budapest SE Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Budapest SE Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for Budapest SE Index Budapest SE Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Caa2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 45 | 69 |

Market Risk | 40 | 70 |

Technical Analysis | 35 | 47 |

Fundamental Analysis | 40 | 35 |

Risk Unsystematic | 37 | 67 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
- M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
- S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
- Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
- Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
- A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
- Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Budapest SE Index stock?A: Budapest SE Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test

Q: Is Budapest SE Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Budapest SE Index Stock.

Q: Is Budapest SE Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Budapest SE Index is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of Budapest SE Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for Budapest SE Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for Budapest SE Index stock?

A: The prediction period for Budapest SE Index is (n+8 weeks)