Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We evaluate Blackbaud prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLKB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BLKB stock.

Keywords: BLKB, Blackbaud, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Probability Distribution
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

BLKB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. We consider Blackbaud Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BLKB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BLKB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BLKB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BLKB Blackbaud
Time series to forecast n: 05 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BLKB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Blackbaud

1. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
2. When an entity first applies this Standard, it may choose as its accounting policy to continue to apply the hedge accounting requirements of IAS 39 instead of the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard. An entity shall apply that policy to all of its hedging relationships. An entity that chooses that policy shall also apply IFRIC 16 Hedges of a Net Investment in a Foreign Operation without the amendments that conform that Interpretation to the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard.
3. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Blackbaud assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BLKB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BLKB stock.

Financial State Forecast for BLKB Blackbaud Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 5932
Market Risk3251
Technical Analysis6643
Fundamental Analysis9075
Risk Unsystematic6754

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 573 signals.

References

1. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
4. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
5. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
6. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
7. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BLKB stock?
A: BLKB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is BLKB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BLKB Stock.
Q: Is Blackbaud stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Blackbaud is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BLKB stock?
A: The consensus rating for BLKB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BLKB stock?
A: The prediction period for BLKB is (n+8 weeks)