Buy, sell or hold: EPAM Stock Forecast

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We evaluate EPAM Systems prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EPAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EPAM stock.


Keywords: EPAM, EPAM Systems, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

EPAM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. We consider EPAM Systems Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of EPAM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EPAM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EPAM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EPAM EPAM Systems
Time series to forecast n: 16 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EPAM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for EPAM Systems

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
  2. An entity may retain the right to a part of the interest payments on transferred assets as compensation for servicing those assets. The part of the interest payments that the entity would give up upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract is allocated to the servicing asset or servicing liability. The part of the interest payments that the entity would not give up is an interest-only strip receivable. For example, if the entity would not give up any interest upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract, the entire interest spread is an interest-only strip receivable. For the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, the fair values of the servicing asset and interest-only strip receivable are used to allocate the carrying amount of the receivable between the part of the asset that is derecognised and the part that continues to be recognised. If there is no servicing fee specified or the fee to be received is not expected to compensate the entity adequately for performing the servicing, a liability for the servicing obligation is recognised at fair value.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

EPAM Systems assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EPAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EPAM stock.

Financial State Forecast for EPAM EPAM Systems Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 5056
Market Risk4744
Technical Analysis5990
Fundamental Analysis4445
Risk Unsystematic3662

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 546 signals.

References

  1. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  6. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EPAM stock?
A: EPAM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is EPAM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EPAM Stock.
Q: Is EPAM Systems stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EPAM Systems is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EPAM stock?
A: The consensus rating for EPAM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EPAM stock?
A: The prediction period for EPAM is (n+3 month)

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