Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy, sell or hold: LON:DFI Stock Forecast (Forecast)

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We evaluate DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:DFI stock.


Keywords: LON:DFI, DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

LON:DFI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We consider DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DFI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DFI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:DFI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DFI DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 04 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:DFI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

  1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  2. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  4. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:DFI stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:DFI DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 6044
Market Risk7168
Technical Analysis9085
Fundamental Analysis3944
Risk Unsystematic4854

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 501 signals.

References

  1. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  3. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  4. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  5. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  6. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DFI stock?
A: LON:DFI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:DFI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:DFI Stock.
Q: Is DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DFI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DFI is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DFI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DFI is (n+1 year)

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