Buy, Sell, or Hold? (LON:HE1 Stock Forecast)

This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media. We evaluate HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HE1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HE1 stock.


Keywords: LON:HE1, HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. Nash Equilibria

LON:HE1 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices. We consider HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HE1 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HE1 stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HE1 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HE1 HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD
Time series to forecast n: 12 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HE1 stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD

  1. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by increasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the previously designated volume also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument also include the changes in the value of the additional volume of the hedging instrument. The changes are measured starting from, and by reference to, the date of rebalancing instead of the date on which the hedging relationship was designated. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and added a volume of 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedging instrument after rebalancing would comprise a total derivative volume of 110 tonnes. The change in the fair value of the hedging instrument is the total change in the fair value of the derivatives that make up the total volume of 110 tonnes. These derivatives could (and probably would) have different critical terms, such as their forward rates, because they were entered into at different points in time (including the possibility of designating derivatives into hedging relationships after their initial recognition).
  4. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HE1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HE1 stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HE1 HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 5258
Market Risk3578
Technical Analysis7587
Fundamental Analysis7363
Risk Unsystematic3130

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 637 signals.

References

  1. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  2. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  3. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  6. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HE1 stock?
A: LON:HE1 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:HE1 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HE1 Stock.
Q: Is HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HELIUM ONE GLOBAL LTD is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HE1 stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HE1 is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HE1 stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HE1 is (n+8 weeks)

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