Buy, sell or hold: TMUS Stock Forecast

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We evaluate T-Mobile US prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TMUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TMUS stock.


Keywords: TMUS, T-Mobile US, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. Market Outlook
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

TMUS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock index with traditional time series analysis has proven to be difficult an Artificial Neural network may be suitable for the task. A Neural Network has the ability to extract useful information from large set of data. This paper presents a review of literature application of Artificial Neural Network for stock market predictions and from this literature found that Artificial Neural Network is very useful for predicting world stock markets. We consider T-Mobile US Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of TMUS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TMUS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TMUS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TMUS T-Mobile US
Time series to forecast n: 14 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TMUS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for T-Mobile US

  1. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  4. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

T-Mobile US assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TMUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TMUS stock.

Financial State Forecast for TMUS T-Mobile US Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 8844
Market Risk7736
Technical Analysis4632
Fundamental Analysis8467
Risk Unsystematic3663

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 697 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  2. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  3. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  5. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  7. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TMUS stock?
A: TMUS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is TMUS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TMUS Stock.
Q: Is T-Mobile US stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for T-Mobile US is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TMUS stock?
A: The consensus rating for TMUS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TMUS stock?
A: The prediction period for TMUS is (n+8 weeks)

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