This paper examines the theory and practice of regression techniques for prediction of stock price trend by using a transformed data set in ordinal data format. The original pretransformed data source contains data of heterogeneous data types used for handling of currency values and financial ratios. The data formats in currency values and financial ratios provide a process for computation of stock prices. The transformed data set contains only a standardized ordinal data type which provides a process to measure rankings of stock price trends. We evaluate CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CMCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CMCL stock.

Keywords: LON:CMCL, CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. What is a prediction confidence?

## LON:CMCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. Since many stocks are traded on a stock exchange, numerous factors influence the decision-making process. Moreover, the behaviour of stock prices is uncertain and hard to predict. For these reasons, stock price prediction is an important process and a challenging one. We consider CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CMCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CMCL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:CMCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC
Time series to forecast n: 11 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CMCL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC

1. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.
2. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
3. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
4. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CMCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CMCL stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B3
Operational Risk 8334
Market Risk8776
Technical Analysis7536
Fundamental Analysis8531
Risk Unsystematic5464

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 542 signals.

## References

1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
2. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
3. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
4. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
5. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
7. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CMCL stock?
A: LON:CMCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:CMCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CMCL Stock.
Q: Is CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CMCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CMCL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CMCL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CMCL is (n+3 month)