Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can neural networks predict stock market? (NSE SPARC Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

In today's economy, there is a profound impact of the stock market or equity market. Prediction of stock prices is extremely complex, chaotic, and the presence of a dynamic environment makes it a great challenge. Behavioural finance suggests that decision-making process of investors is to a very great extent influenced by the emotions and sentiments in response to a particular news. Thus, to support the decisions of the investors, we have presented an approach combining two distinct fields for analysis of stock exchange. We evaluate Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE SPARC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE SPARC stock.


Keywords: NSE SPARC, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

NSE SPARC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth. We consider Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE SPARC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE SPARC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE SPARC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE SPARC Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited
Time series to forecast n: 03 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE SPARC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited

  1. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.
  2. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
  3. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE SPARC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE SPARC stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE SPARC Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 6677
Market Risk6072
Technical Analysis3234
Fundamental Analysis5846
Risk Unsystematic8650

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 693 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  3. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  4. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  5. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  6. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  7. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE SPARC stock?
A: NSE SPARC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is NSE SPARC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE SPARC Stock.
Q: Is Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE SPARC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE SPARC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE SPARC stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE SPARC is (n+1 year)

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