Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can neural networks predict stock market? (LON:PHLL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. We evaluate PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PHLL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PHLL stock.


Keywords: LON:PHLL, PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

LON:PHLL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market prediction patterns are seen as an important activity and it is more effective. Hence, stock prices will lead to lucrative profits from sound taking decisions. Because of the stagnant and noisy data, stock market-related forecasts are a major challenge for investors. Therefore, forecasting the stock market is a major challenge for investors to use their money to make more profit. Stock market predictions use mathematical strategies and learning tools. We consider PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PHLL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PHLL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:PHLL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PHLL PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 05 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PHLL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC

  1. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  2. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
  3. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  4. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PHLL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PHLL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:PHLL PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 5257
Market Risk7759
Technical Analysis5964
Fundamental Analysis8447
Risk Unsystematic5949

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 554 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  3. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  4. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  5. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  6. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  7. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PHLL stock?
A: LON:PHLL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:PHLL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PHLL Stock.
Q: Is PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PETERSHILL PARTNERS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PHLL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PHLL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PHLL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PHLL is (n+3 month)

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