Can stock prices be predicted? (AII:TSX Stock Forecast)

Almonty Industries Inc. Research Report

Summary

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We evaluate Almonty Industries Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AII:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AII:TSX stock.

Key Points

1. Game Theory
2. Short/Long Term Stocks
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

AII:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Almonty Industries Inc. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AII:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AII:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AII:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AII:TSX Almonty Industries Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 24 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AII:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Almonty Industries Inc.

1. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
2. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
3. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
4. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Almonty Industries Inc. assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AII:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AII:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for AII:TSX Almonty Industries Inc. Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B3
Operational Risk	75	50
Market Risk	64	38
Technical Analysis	41	31
Fundamental Analysis	82	35
Risk Unsystematic	50	80

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 463 signals.

References

1. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
2. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
3. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
4. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
6. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
7. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AII:TSX stock?
A: AII:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is AII:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AII:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Almonty Industries Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Almonty Industries Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AII:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for AII:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AII:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for AII:TSX is (n+3 month)

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