Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (NSE POLYMED Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The stock market is very volatile and non-stationary and generates huge volumes of data in every second. In this article, the existing machine learning algorithms are analyzed for stock market forecasting and also a new pattern-finding algorithm for forecasting stock trend is developed. Three approaches can be used to solve the problem: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the machine learning. Experimental analysis done in this article shows that the machine learning could be useful for investors to make profitable decisions. We evaluate Poly Medicure Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE POLYMED stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE POLYMED stock.


Keywords: NSE POLYMED, Poly Medicure Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

NSE POLYMED Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We consider Poly Medicure Limited Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE POLYMED stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE POLYMED stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE POLYMED Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE POLYMED Poly Medicure Limited
Time series to forecast n: 07 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE POLYMED stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Poly Medicure Limited

  1. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  2. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance
  3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  4. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Poly Medicure Limited assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE POLYMED stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE POLYMED stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE POLYMED Poly Medicure Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba3
Operational Risk 8288
Market Risk8432
Technical Analysis4577
Fundamental Analysis4763
Risk Unsystematic8746

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 613 signals.

References

  1. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  3. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE POLYMED stock?
A: NSE POLYMED stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NSE POLYMED stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE POLYMED Stock.
Q: Is Poly Medicure Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Poly Medicure Limited is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE POLYMED stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE POLYMED is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE POLYMED stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE POLYMED is (n+6 month)

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