Can stock prices be predicted? (NSE RALLIS Stock Forecast)

Rallis India Limited Research Report

Summary

Stock market predictions are one of the challenging tasks for financial investors across the globe. This challenge is due to the uncertainty and volatility of the stock prices in the market. Due to technology and globalization of business and financial markets it is important to predict the stock prices more quickly and accurately. Last few years there has been much improvement in the field of Neural Network (NN) applications in business and financial markets. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods are mostly implemented and play a vital role in decision making for stock market predictions. We evaluate Rallis India Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE RALLIS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE RALLIS stock.

Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. Dominated Move
3. Stock Rating

NSE RALLIS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Rallis India Limited Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE RALLIS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE RALLIS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE RALLIS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE RALLIS Rallis India Limited
Time series to forecast n: 20 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE RALLIS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Rallis India Limited

1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
2. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
3. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Rallis India Limited assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE RALLIS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE RALLIS stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE RALLIS Rallis India Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B2
Operational Risk	59	54
Market Risk	43	58
Technical Analysis	34	69
Fundamental Analysis	59	52
Risk Unsystematic	59	33

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 755 signals.

References

1. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
2. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
3. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
4. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
5. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
6. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
7. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE RALLIS stock?
A: NSE RALLIS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is NSE RALLIS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE RALLIS Stock.
Q: Is Rallis India Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Rallis India Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE RALLIS stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE RALLIS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE RALLIS stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE RALLIS is (n+3 month)

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