Can stock prices be predicted? (NSE INSECTICID Stock Forecast)

Insecticides (India) Limited Research Report

Summary

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate Insecticides (India) Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE INSECTICID stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE INSECTICID stock.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Game Theory

NSE INSECTICID Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Insecticides (India) Limited Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE INSECTICID stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE INSECTICID stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE INSECTICID Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE INSECTICID Insecticides (India) Limited
Time series to forecast n: 21 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE INSECTICID stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Insecticides (India) Limited

1. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
2. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Insecticides (India) Limited assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE INSECTICID stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE INSECTICID stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE INSECTICID Insecticides (India) Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Operational Risk	71	39
Market Risk	68	34
Technical Analysis	69	76
Fundamental Analysis	52	86
Risk Unsystematic	81	79

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 476 signals.

References

1. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
3. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
4. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
5. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
6. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE INSECTICID stock?
A: NSE INSECTICID stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NSE INSECTICID stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE INSECTICID Stock.
Q: Is Insecticides (India) Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Insecticides (India) Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE INSECTICID stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE INSECTICID is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE INSECTICID stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE INSECTICID is (n+3 month)

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