Can stock prices be predicted? (TPX Stock Forecast)

Tempur Sealy International Research Report

Summary

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We evaluate Tempur Sealy International prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TPX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TPX stock.

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. Operational Risk

TPX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tempur Sealy International Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TPX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TPX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TPX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TPX Tempur Sealy International
Time series to forecast n: 20 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TPX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Tempur Sealy International

  1. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
  2. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  3. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  4. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Tempur Sealy International assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TPX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TPX stock.

Financial State Forecast for TPX Tempur Sealy International Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 4368
Market Risk5441
Technical Analysis5272
Fundamental Analysis4478
Risk Unsystematic4147

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 565 signals.

References

  1. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  2. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  3. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  4. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  7. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TPX stock?
A: TPX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is TPX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TPX Stock.
Q: Is Tempur Sealy International stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tempur Sealy International is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TPX stock?
A: The consensus rating for TPX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TPX stock?
A: The prediction period for TPX is (n+4 weeks)

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