Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (NSE DRREDDY Stock Forecast)

Stock market is basically nonlinear in nature and the research on stock market is one of the most important issues in recent years. People invest in stock market based on some prediction. For predict, the stock market prices people search such methods and tools which will increase their profits, while minimize their risks. Prediction plays a very important role in stock market business which is very complicated and challenging process. We evaluate Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE DRREDDY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE DRREDDY stock.


Keywords: NSE DRREDDY, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

NSE DRREDDY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock prediction with data mining techniques is one of the most important issues in finance being investigated by researchers across the globe. Data mining techniques can be used extensively in the financial markets to help investors make qualitative decision. One of the techniques is artificial neural network (ANN). However, in the application of ANN for predicting the financial market the use of technical analysis variables for stock prediction is predominant. In this paper, we present a hybridized approach which combines the use of the variables of technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators for prediction of future price of stock in order to improve on the existing approaches. We consider Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE DRREDDY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE DRREDDY stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE DRREDDY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE DRREDDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited
Time series to forecast n: 09 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE DRREDDY stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited

  1. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  2. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
  3. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  4. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE DRREDDY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE DRREDDY stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE DRREDDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 8550
Market Risk3430
Technical Analysis4735
Fundamental Analysis6781
Risk Unsystematic5051

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 677 signals.

References

  1. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  2. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  4. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  5. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  6. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  7. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE DRREDDY stock?
A: NSE DRREDDY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is NSE DRREDDY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE DRREDDY Stock.
Q: Is Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE DRREDDY stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE DRREDDY is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE DRREDDY stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE DRREDDY is (n+8 weeks)



Stop Guessing, Start Winning.
Get Today's AI-Driven Picks.

Click here to see what the AI recommends.




Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.