Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (LON:ATQT Stock Forecast)

ATTRAQT GROUP PLC Research Report

Summary

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate ATTRAQT GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ATQT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ATQT stock.

Key Points

  1. Probability Distribution
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. Investment Risk

LON:ATQT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ATTRAQT GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ATQT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ATQT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ATQT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ATQT ATTRAQT GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 21 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ATQT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ATTRAQT GROUP PLC

  1. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  2. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ATTRAQT GROUP PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ATQT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ATQT stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ATQT ATTRAQT GROUP PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 6564
Market Risk7931
Technical Analysis4934
Fundamental Analysis8084
Risk Unsystematic3990

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 835 signals.

References

  1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  3. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  4. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  7. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ATQT stock?
A: LON:ATQT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:ATQT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ATQT Stock.
Q: Is ATTRAQT GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ATTRAQT GROUP PLC is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ATQT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ATQT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ATQT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ATQT is (n+6 month)

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