Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (SKX Stock Forecast)

Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

This paper aims to develop an innovative neural network approach to achieve better stock market predictions. Data were obtained from the live stock market for real-time and off-line analysis and results of visualizations and analytics to demonstrate Internet of Multimedia of Things for stock analysis. To study the influence of market characteristics on stock prices, traditional neural network algorithms may incorrectly predict the stock market, since the initial weight of the random selection problem can be easily prone to incorrect predictions. We evaluate Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SKX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SKX stock.

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. Decision Making
  3. Prediction Modeling

SKX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SKX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SKX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SKX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SKX Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 22 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SKX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock

  1. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  2. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.
  3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SKX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SKX stock.

Financial State Forecast for SKX Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 4233
Market Risk7342
Technical Analysis4869
Fundamental Analysis6878
Risk Unsystematic8136

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 721 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  3. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  6. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  7. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SKX stock?
A: SKX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is SKX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SKX Stock.
Q: Is Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SKX stock?
A: The consensus rating for SKX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SKX stock?
A: The prediction period for SKX is (n+4 weeks)

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