CGG:TSX China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. Stock Forecast (Forecast)

China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. Research Report

Summary

The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We evaluate China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGG:TSX stock.

Key Points

1. Dominated Move
2. Investment Risk
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

CGG:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CGG:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CGG:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CGG:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CGG:TSX China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGG:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd.

1. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
2. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
3. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).
4. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CGG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGG:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for CGG:TSX China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba2
Operational Risk	53	84
Market Risk	90	56
Technical Analysis	37	79
Fundamental Analysis	87	79
Risk Unsystematic	36	40

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 478 signals.

References

1. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
3. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
4. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
5. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
6. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
7. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CGG:TSX stock?
A: CGG:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CGG:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CGG:TSX Stock.
Q: Is China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CGG:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CGG:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CGG:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CGG:TSX is (n+1 year)

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