Modelling A.I. in Economics

CYTH Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. We evaluate Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CYTH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CYTH stock.

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. Trading Interaction

CYTH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CYTH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CYTH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CYTH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CYTH Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 26 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CYTH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

  1. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
  2. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.
  3. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  4. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CYTH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CYTH stock.

Financial State Forecast for CYTH Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 5379
Market Risk5354
Technical Analysis5544
Fundamental Analysis8047
Risk Unsystematic3075

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 548 signals.

References

  1. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  2. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  3. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  4. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CYTH stock?
A: CYTH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is CYTH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CYTH Stock.
Q: Is Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cyclo Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CYTH stock?
A: The consensus rating for CYTH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CYTH stock?
A: The prediction period for CYTH is (n+16 weeks)

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