Modelling A.I. in Economics

DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) (Forecast)

Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Research Report

Summary

Financial markets are fascinating if you can predict them. Also, the traders acting on financial markets produce a vast amount of information to analyse the consequences of investing according to the current market trends. Stock Market prediction is the technique to determine whether stock value will go up or down as it plays an active role in the financial gain of nation's economic status. We evaluate Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DAVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAVA stock.

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

DAVA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DAVA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DAVA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DAVA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share)
Time series to forecast n: 29 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAVA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share)

  1. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  2. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  3. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DAVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAVA stock.

Financial State Forecast for DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 3143
Market Risk4090
Technical Analysis8859
Fundamental Analysis5352
Risk Unsystematic4981

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 669 signals.

References

  1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  2. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  3. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  4. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  5. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DAVA stock?
A: DAVA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is DAVA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy DAVA Stock.
Q: Is Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DAVA stock?
A: The consensus rating for DAVA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for DAVA stock?
A: The prediction period for DAVA is (n+1 year)

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