## Summary

Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. Since many stocks are traded on a stock exchange, numerous factors influence the decision-making process. Moreover, the behaviour of stock prices is uncertain and hard to predict. For these reasons, stock price prediction is an important process and a challenging one. We evaluate DocuSign Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOCU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOCU stock.

## Key Points

1. Can machine learning predict?
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. What is prediction model?

## DOCU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DocuSign Inc. Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DOCU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DOCU stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## DOCU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Time series to forecast n: 22 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOCU stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

1. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.
2. Paragraph 6.3.4 permits an entity to designate as hedged items aggregated exposures that are a combination of an exposure and a derivative. When designating such a hedged item, an entity assesses whether the aggregated exposure combines an exposure with a derivative so that it creates a different aggregated exposure that is managed as one exposure for a particular risk (or risks). In that case, the entity may designate the hedged item on the basis of the aggregated exposure
3. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
4. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

DocuSign Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOCU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOCU stock.

### Financial State Forecast for DOCU DocuSign Inc. Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 5930
Market Risk4682
Technical Analysis8143
Fundamental Analysis3758
Risk Unsystematic8471

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 841 signals.

## References

1. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
2. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
3. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
4. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
5. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
6. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
7. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DOCU stock?
A: DOCU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is DOCU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOCU Stock.
A: The consensus rating for DocuSign Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DOCU stock?
A: The consensus rating for DOCU is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DOCU stock?
A: The prediction period for DOCU is (n+16 weeks)