Does algo trading work? (NSE DIVISLAB Stock Forecast)

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We evaluate Divi's Laboratories Limited prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE DIVISLAB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE DIVISLAB stock.

Keywords: NSE DIVISLAB, Divi's Laboratories Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. Operational Risk

NSE DIVISLAB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We consider Divi's Laboratories Limited Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE DIVISLAB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE DIVISLAB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE DIVISLAB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE DIVISLAB Divi's Laboratories Limited
Time series to forecast n: 08 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE DIVISLAB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Divi's Laboratories Limited

1. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
2. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
3. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
4. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Divi's Laboratories Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE DIVISLAB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE DIVISLAB stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE DIVISLAB Divi's Laboratories Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Operational Risk	46	34
Market Risk	61	50
Technical Analysis	43	53
Fundamental Analysis	44	82
Risk Unsystematic	74	82

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 457 signals.

References

1. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
2. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
3. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
4. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
5. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
6. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
7. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE DIVISLAB stock?
A: NSE DIVISLAB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NSE DIVISLAB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE DIVISLAB Stock.
Q: Is Divi's Laboratories Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Divi's Laboratories Limited is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE DIVISLAB stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE DIVISLAB is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE DIVISLAB stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE DIVISLAB is (n+6 month)

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