Does algo trading work? (NSE IBULHSGFIN Stock Forecast)

Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited Research Report

Summary

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IBULHSGFIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IBULHSGFIN stock.

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Market Signals
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

NSE IBULHSGFIN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE IBULHSGFIN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE IBULHSGFIN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE IBULHSGFIN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE IBULHSGFIN Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited
Time series to forecast n: 18 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IBULHSGFIN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited

1. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
2. In addition to those hedging relationships specified in paragraph 6.9.1, an entity shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to new hedging relationships in which an alternative benchmark rate is designated as a non-contractually specified risk component (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) when, because of interest rate benchmark reform, that risk component is not separately identifiable at the date it is designated.
3. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IBULHSGFIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IBULHSGFIN stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE IBULHSGFIN Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba1
Operational Risk	48	76
Market Risk	58	36
Technical Analysis	45	75
Fundamental Analysis	78	74
Risk Unsystematic	63	87

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 631 signals.

References

1. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
2. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
4. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
5. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
6. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE IBULHSGFIN stock?
A: NSE IBULHSGFIN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is NSE IBULHSGFIN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IBULHSGFIN Stock.
Q: Is Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE IBULHSGFIN stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE IBULHSGFIN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE IBULHSGFIN stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE IBULHSGFIN is (n+4 weeks)

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