Dow Jones New Zealand Index Research Report

Summary

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. We evaluate Dow Jones New Zealand Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.

Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones New Zealand Index Dow Jones New Zealand Index
Time series to forecast n: 24 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Dow Jones New Zealand Index

1. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
2. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).
3. For the avoidance of doubt, the effects of replacing the original counterparty with a clearing counterparty and making the associated changes as described in paragraph 6.5.6 shall be reflected in the measurement of the hedging instrument and therefore in the assessment of hedge effectiveness and the measurement of hedge effectiveness
4. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Dow Jones New Zealand Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones New Zealand Index Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 6655
Market Risk5939
Technical Analysis5457
Fundamental Analysis3554
Risk Unsystematic6340

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 523 signals.

References

1. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
2. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
3. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
4. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
6. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is (n+4 weeks)

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