Modelling A.I. in Economics

Enphase Stock Forecast, Price & Rating (ENPH) (Forecast)

Stock market prediction is a major exertion in the field of finance and establishing businesses. Stock market is totally uncertain as the prices of stocks keep fluctuating on a daily basis because of numerous factors that influence it. One of the traditional ways of predicting stock prices was by using only historical data. But with time it was observed that other factors such as peoples' sentiments and other news events occurring in and around the country affect the stock market, for e.g. national elections, natural calamity etc. We evaluate Enphase prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ENPH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ENPH stock.


Keywords: ENPH, Enphase, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

ENPH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. We consider Enphase Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ENPH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ENPH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ENPH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ENPH Enphase
Time series to forecast n: 06 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ENPH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Enphase

  1. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  2. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.
  3. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  4. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Enphase assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ENPH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ENPH stock.

Financial State Forecast for ENPH Enphase Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 3264
Market Risk4056
Technical Analysis7233
Fundamental Analysis4868
Risk Unsystematic4643

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 459 signals.

References

  1. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  3. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  5. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  6. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  7. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ENPH stock?
A: ENPH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is ENPH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ENPH Stock.
Q: Is Enphase stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Enphase is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ENPH stock?
A: The consensus rating for ENPH is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ENPH stock?
A: The prediction period for ENPH is (n+8 weeks)

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