Modelling A.I. in Economics

EOG:TSXV Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. Research Report

Summary

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EOG:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EOG:TSXV stock.

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

EOG:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EOG:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EOG:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EOG:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EOG:TSXV Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 26 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EOG:TSXV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd.

  1. The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
  2. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
  3. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EOG:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EOG:TSXV stock.

Financial State Forecast for EOG:TSXV Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 4840
Market Risk5967
Technical Analysis3471
Fundamental Analysis7231
Risk Unsystematic7641

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 639 signals.

References

  1. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  2. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  4. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
  5. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  6. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  7. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EOG:TSXV stock?
A: EOG:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is EOG:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EOG:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EOG:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for EOG:TSXV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EOG:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for EOG:TSXV is (n+3 month)

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