General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock Research Report

## Summary

Recently, numerous investigations for stock price prediction and portfolio management using machine learning have been trying to develop efficient mechanical trading systems. But these systems have a limitation in that they are mainly based on the supervised learning which is not so adequate for learning problems with long-term goals and delayed rewards. This paper proposes a method of applying reinforcement learning, suitable for modeling and learning various kinds of interactions in real situations, to the problem of stock price prediction. We evaluate General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GAM^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GAM^B stock.

## Key Points

1. Decision Making
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. Investment Risk

## GAM^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock Stock Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GAM^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GAM^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## GAM^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GAM^B General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock
Time series to forecast n: 27 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GAM^B stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock

1. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
2. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
3. If any instrument in the pool does not meet the conditions in either paragraph B4.1.23 or paragraph B4.1.24, the condition in paragraph B4.1.21(b) is not met. In performing this assessment, a detailed instrument-byinstrument analysis of the pool may not be necessary. However, an entity must use judgement and perform sufficient analysis to determine whether the instruments in the pool meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24. (See also paragraph B4.1.18 for guidance on contractual cash flow characteristics that have only a de minimis effect.)
4. To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GAM^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GAM^B stock.

### Financial State Forecast for GAM^B General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Operational Risk 4834
Market Risk3976
Technical Analysis5181
Fundamental Analysis3937
Risk Unsystematic4578

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 647 signals.

## References

1. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
2. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
3. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
4. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
6. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
7. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GAM^B stock?
A: GAM^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is GAM^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GAM^B Stock.
Q: Is General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for General American Investors Company Inc. Cumulative Preferred Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GAM^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for GAM^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GAM^B stock?
A: The prediction period for GAM^B is (n+6 month)