GameStop Stock Forecast & Analysis

Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. We evaluate GameStop prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GME stock.

Keywords: GME, GameStop, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. Market Signals
3. Can statistics predict the future?

GME Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We consider GameStop Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of GME stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Factor)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GME stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GME Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GME GameStop
Time series to forecast n: 04 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GME stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for GameStop

1. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
4. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

GameStop assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GME stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GME stock.

Financial State Forecast for GME GameStop Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	60	55
Market Risk	88	62
Technical Analysis	81	82
Fundamental Analysis	63	55
Risk Unsystematic	34	51

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 676 signals.

References

1. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
3. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
4. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
5. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
6. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
7. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GME stock?
A: GME stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor
Q: Is GME stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GME Stock.
Q: Is GameStop stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GameStop is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GME stock?
A: The consensus rating for GME is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GME stock?
A: The prediction period for GME is (n+16 weeks)

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