## Summary

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction.** We evaluate Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the GRBK^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GRBK^A stock.**

## Key Points

- What are main components of Markov decision process?
- Trading Signals
- What is a prediction confidence?

## GRBK^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GRBK^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Factor)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GRBK^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## GRBK^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**GRBK^A Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock)

**Time series to forecast n: 30 Nov 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GRBK^A stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock)

- If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
- If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
- Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
- The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Factor ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the GRBK^A stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GRBK^A stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for GRBK^A Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 47 | 76 |

Market Risk | 66 | 83 |

Technical Analysis | 87 | 65 |

Fundamental Analysis | 81 | 76 |

Risk Unsystematic | 30 | 31 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
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- Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
- M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GRBK^A stock?A: GRBK^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Factor

Q: Is GRBK^A stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GRBK^A Stock.

Q: Is Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Green Brick Partners Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/1000th fractional interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of GRBK^A stock?

A: The consensus rating for GRBK^A is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for GRBK^A stock?

A: The prediction period for GRBK^A is (n+1 year)