Modelling A.I. in Economics

GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. (Forecast)

In modern financial market, the most crucial problem is to find essential approach to outline and visualizing the predictions in stock-markets to be made by individuals in order to attain maximum profit by investments. The stock market is a transformative, non-straight dynamical and complex system. Long term investment is one of the major investment decisions. Though, evaluating shares and calculating elementary values for companies for long term investment is difficult. In this paper we are going to present comparison of machine learning aided algorithms to evaluate the stock prices in the future to analyze market behaviour. We evaluate GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GRID stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GRID stock.


Keywords: LON:GRID, GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Can machine learning predict?

LON:GRID Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We consider GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GRID stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GRID stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GRID Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GRID GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC
Time series to forecast n: 08 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GRID stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC

  1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  2. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
  3. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
  4. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GRID stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GRID stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:GRID GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Baa2
Operational Risk 8869
Market Risk8955
Technical Analysis8982
Fundamental Analysis7390
Risk Unsystematic6375

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 601 signals.

References

  1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  2. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  3. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  4. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  5. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  6. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  7. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GRID stock?
A: LON:GRID stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is LON:GRID stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GRID Stock.
Q: Is GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GRID stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GRID is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GRID stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GRID is (n+4 weeks)

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