Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Research Report

## Summary

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We evaluate Gran Tierra Energy Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GTE:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTE:TSX stock.

## Key Points

1. Can statistics predict the future?
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

## GTE:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of GTE:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GTE:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## GTE:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GTE:TSX Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 27 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTE:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Gran Tierra Energy Inc.

1. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.
2. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
3. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
4. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GTE:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTE:TSX stock.

### Financial State Forecast for GTE:TSX Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B2
Operational Risk 8832
Market Risk5546
Technical Analysis8948
Fundamental Analysis6574
Risk Unsystematic4661

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 823 signals.

## References

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Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GTE:TSX stock?
A: GTE:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is GTE:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTE:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Gran Tierra Energy Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Gran Tierra Energy Inc. is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GTE:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for GTE:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GTE:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for GTE:TSX is (n+8 weeks)