Modelling A.I. in Economics

How accurate is machine learning in stock market? (MLM Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Recently, a lot of interesting work has been done in the area of applying Machine Learning Algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Most stock traders nowadays depend on Intelligent Trading Systems which help them in predicting prices based on various situations and conditions, thereby helping them in making instantaneous investment decisions. We evaluate Martin Marietta prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MLM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MLM stock.


Keywords: MLM, Martin Marietta, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

MLM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In today's economy, there is a profound impact of the stock market or equity market. Prediction of stock prices is extremely complex, chaotic, and the presence of a dynamic environment makes it a great challenge. Behavioural finance suggests that decision-making process of investors is to a very great extent influenced by the emotions and sentiments in response to a particular news. Thus, to support the decisions of the investors, we have presented an approach combining two distinct fields for analysis of stock exchange. We consider Martin Marietta Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of MLM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MLM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MLM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MLM Martin Marietta
Time series to forecast n: 10 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MLM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Martin Marietta

  1. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
  2. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.
  4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Martin Marietta assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MLM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MLM stock.

Financial State Forecast for MLM Martin Marietta Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 4168
Market Risk7862
Technical Analysis3781
Fundamental Analysis7575
Risk Unsystematic5487

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 459 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  3. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  4. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  6. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  7. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MLM stock?
A: MLM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is MLM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MLM Stock.
Q: Is Martin Marietta stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Martin Marietta is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MLM stock?
A: The consensus rating for MLM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MLM stock?
A: The prediction period for MLM is (n+4 weeks)

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