AC Investment Research

How do you decide buy or sell a stock? (NSE EIHOTEL Stock Forecast) Research Report

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We evaluate EIH Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE EIHOTEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE EIHOTEL stock.


Keywords: NSE EIHOTEL, EIH Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Market Outlook
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

NSE EIHOTEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We consider EIH Limited Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE EIHOTEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE EIHOTEL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE EIHOTEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE EIHOTEL EIH Limited
Time series to forecast n: 17 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE EIHOTEL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for EIH Limited

  1. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.
  2. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
  3. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
  4. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

EIH Limited assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE EIHOTEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE EIHOTEL stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE EIHOTEL EIH Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B3
Operational Risk 5239
Market Risk3647
Technical Analysis3144
Fundamental Analysis3752
Risk Unsystematic5136

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 495 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  4. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  5. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  6. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  7. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE EIHOTEL stock?
A: NSE EIHOTEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NSE EIHOTEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE EIHOTEL Stock.
Q: Is EIH Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EIH Limited is Sell and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE EIHOTEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE EIHOTEL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE EIHOTEL stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE EIHOTEL is (n+6 month)

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