How do you determine buy or sell? (FTSE China A50 Index Stock Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We evaluate FTSE China A50 Index prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE China A50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FTSE China A50 Index stock.


Keywords: FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

FTSE China A50 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Social media comments have in the past had an instantaneous effect on stock markets. This paper investigates the sentiments expressed on the social media platform Twitter and their pr edictive impact on the Stock Market. We consider FTSE China A50 Index Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of FTSE China A50 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FTSE China A50 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FTSE China A50 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FTSE China A50 Index FTSE China A50 Index
Time series to forecast n: 12 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FTSE China A50 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for FTSE China A50 Index

  1. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  2. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
  4. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

FTSE China A50 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE China A50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FTSE China A50 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for FTSE China A50 Index FTSE China A50 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 6190
Market Risk6845
Technical Analysis7232
Fundamental Analysis4579
Risk Unsystematic7485

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 854 signals.

References

  1. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  2. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  4. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  6. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  7. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FTSE China A50 Index stock?
A: FTSE China A50 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is FTSE China A50 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FTSE China A50 Index Stock.
Q: Is FTSE China A50 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE China A50 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FTSE China A50 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE China A50 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FTSE China A50 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for FTSE China A50 Index is (n+4 weeks)

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