How do you determine buy or sell? (L Stock Forecast)

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system. We evaluate Loblaw Companies Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the L stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold L stock.


Keywords: L, Loblaw Companies Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. Trading Signals
  3. Market Risk

L Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. We consider Loblaw Companies Limited Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of L stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of L stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

L Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: L Loblaw Companies Limited
Time series to forecast n: 13 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold L stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Loblaw Companies Limited

  1. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
  2. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
  4. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Loblaw Companies Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the L stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold L stock.

Financial State Forecast for L Loblaw Companies Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 5445
Market Risk4277
Technical Analysis5042
Fundamental Analysis7930
Risk Unsystematic7771

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 866 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  2. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  3. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  5. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  6. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for L stock?
A: L stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is L stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold L Stock.
Q: Is Loblaw Companies Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Loblaw Companies Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of L stock?
A: The consensus rating for L is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for L stock?
A: The prediction period for L is (n+4 weeks)

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