How Do You Pick a Stock? (HST Stock Forecast)

Stock market or Share market is one of the most complicated and sophisticated way to do business. Small ownerships, brokerage corporations, banking sector, all depend on this very body to make revenue and divide risks; a very complicated model. However, this paper proposes to use machine learning algorithm to predict the future stock price for exchange by using open source libraries and preexisting algorithms to help make this unpredictable format of business a little more predictable. We evaluate Host Hotels & Resorts prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.


Keywords: HST, Host Hotels & Resorts, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  3. Reaction Function

HST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We consider Host Hotels & Resorts Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of HST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HST stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HST Host Hotels & Resorts
Time series to forecast n: 12 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Host Hotels & Resorts

  1. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  2. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.
  3. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
  4. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Host Hotels & Resorts assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the HST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST stock.

Financial State Forecast for HST Host Hotels & Resorts Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 4880
Market Risk8237
Technical Analysis3783
Fundamental Analysis5942
Risk Unsystematic4565

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 747 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  2. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  3. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  4. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  5. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  7. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HST stock?
A: HST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is HST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HST Stock.
Q: Is Host Hotels & Resorts stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Host Hotels & Resorts is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HST stock?
A: The consensus rating for HST is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HST stock?
A: The prediction period for HST is (n+6 month)

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