Modelling A.I. in Economics

How Do You Pick a Stock? (NSE CROMPTON Stock Forecast)

Financial markets are fascinating if you can predict them. Also, the traders acting on financial markets produce a vast amount of information to analyse the consequences of investing according to the current market trends. Stock Market prediction is the technique to determine whether stock value will go up or down as it plays an active role in the financial gain of nation's economic status. We evaluate Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE CROMPTON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE CROMPTON stock.


Keywords: NSE CROMPTON, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

NSE CROMPTON Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We consider Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE CROMPTON stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE CROMPTON stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE CROMPTON Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE CROMPTON Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited
Time series to forecast n: 09 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE CROMPTON stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited

  1. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
  2. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
  3. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  4. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE CROMPTON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE CROMPTON stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE CROMPTON Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 8348
Market Risk8781
Technical Analysis5872
Fundamental Analysis3673
Risk Unsystematic7266

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 667 signals.

References

  1. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  2. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  3. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  5. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  6. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE CROMPTON stock?
A: NSE CROMPTON stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is NSE CROMPTON stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE CROMPTON Stock.
Q: Is Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE CROMPTON stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE CROMPTON is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE CROMPTON stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE CROMPTON is (n+1 year)

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