HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC Research Report

## Summary

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We evaluate HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HDT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HDT stock.

## Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

## LON:HDT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HDT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HDT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:HDT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HDT HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 17 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HDT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC

1. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
2. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
3. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
4. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HDT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HDT stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:HDT HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 7950
Market Risk8889
Technical Analysis3183
Fundamental Analysis7773
Risk Unsystematic6231

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 536 signals.

## References

1. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
2. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
3. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
4. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
5. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
6. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
7. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HDT stock?
A: LON:HDT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:HDT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HDT Stock.
Q: Is HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HOLDERS TECHNOLOGY PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HDT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HDT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HDT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HDT is (n+8 weeks)