How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (RMI Stock Prediction)

RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED Research Report

Summary

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We evaluate RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RMI stock.

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Probability Distribution
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

RMI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of RMI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RMI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RMI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RMI RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 24 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RMI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED

1. An entity shall assess separately whether each subgroup meets the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1 to be an eligible hedged item. If any subgroup fails to meet the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1, the entity shall discontinue hedge accounting prospectively for the hedging relationship in its entirety. An entity also shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.5.8 and 6.5.11 to account for ineffectiveness related to the hedging relationship in its entirety.
2. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
4. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RMI stock.

Financial State Forecast for RMI RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Operational Risk	50	47
Market Risk	66	70
Technical Analysis	49	41
Fundamental Analysis	90	71
Risk Unsystematic	66	30

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 759 signals.

References

1. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
3. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
4. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
5. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
6. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
7. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for RMI stock?
A: RMI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is RMI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RMI Stock.
Q: Is RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RMI stock?
A: The consensus rating for RMI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for RMI stock?
A: The prediction period for RMI is (n+4 weeks)

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